The number of internally displaced people in Ukraine is estimated at around 5 million, and this issue is becoming particularly acute for the regions directly affected by the war. The future of these regions' economies and their recovery depend on whether Ukrainians can return home after the war.
In November 2023, Budhouse Group, one of Ukraine's largest real estate developers, conducted a survey of subscribers to its shopping center in Kherson to determine their current location and return conditions.
According to a survey of subscribers to the city's largest and only professional shopping mall, Fabrika, approximately 19% of subscribers now stay in the city. Another 17% are located nearby in Mykolaiv (7%), Odesa (10%) and visit Kherson from time to time. 23% of Kherson residents live in other regions of Ukraine. Thus, 59.4% of Kherson residents remain in Ukraine, of which 14% live in the city. Also, 1.5% remain in the occupied part of the Kherson region.
40.6% of Fabrika's subscribers are now abroad, mainly in Poland (10%) and Germany (7%). There are also a significant number of them in the Czech Republic, the Baltic States and Southern Europe. The geography of Kherson subscribers of Fabrika shopping mall includes more than 70 countries.
The share of people who returned to Kherson is not significant - 8%. This is due to the constant shelling. Another 1% plan to return to the city in the near future. The overwhelming majority of people associate their return to the city with the de-occupation of the Kherson region, which will lead to improved security conditions, as Russian field artillery will not reach Kherson. When this happens, 42% of residents will return to the city. Another 25% will wait for the end of hostilities or the official end of the war. Only 4% of residents do not plan to return to the city under any circumstances.
Kherson was under occupation, so since the beginning of the full-scale war, the city's population has been gradually decreasing. Now there are about 70 thousand people left there, while before the invasion, Kherson was home to about 290 thousand. According to a survey of Fabrika's subscribers, 19% remain in Kherson, and 40.6% are abroad, particularly in Poland and Germany.
Although only 8% of residents have already returned, 42% plan to return after the de-occupation of the Kherson region.
"The results indicate that Kherson's population may soon recover. The main factor for the majority of people is still the shelling of the city, not even the end of the war," says Anatoliy Shkriblyak, President of Budhouse Group. Fabrika Shopping Center in Kherson and even developed a new design for the facades. But unfortunately, the security situation does not allow us to start construction work now."